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Forecasting the vehicles failures based on vehicle inspection stations data analysis

Forecasting failures of motor vehicles depending on their technical condition is an important issue from the point of view of road safety. The basic problem of accurate forecasting is access to sufficiently large sets of homogeneous failure data. Research in this area is usually based on separate vehicles fleets of small numbers. In this paper, the authors proposed an innovative solution based on the use of data from the national program of vehicle monitoring at diagnostic control stations under the CEPIK 2.0 system. The use of this information allows for the analysis of damage on a large scale that has not been used so far. The article presents an example of the analysis of passenger car failure trends on a national scale, depending on their market origin, age and road mileage.
The Weibull distribution was used to model the reliability. In summary, a standard methodology for fleet failure forecasting is proposed.
Topic: Engine testing, durability, reliability and diagnostics
Author: Tomasz Szczepański
Co-authors: Paweł Dziedziak, Andrzej Niewczas, Marcin Ślęzak